WPC's Short Range Public Discussion (2024)

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Short Range Forecast DiscussionNWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD400 PM EDT Sun Jul 07 2024Valid 00Z Mon Jul 08 2024 - 00Z Wed Jul 10 2024...Tropical Storm Beryl expected to re-intensify to hurricane strength andmake landfall on the central Texas coast early on Monday; very heavy rainand gusty winds expected to spread well inland through the next couple ofdays......Extreme heat becomes less intense in California but continues in theDesert Southwest and interior Pacific Northwest; more heat and humidityfor the Mid-Atlantic as well.......Focus of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall in Oklahoma into thisevening will give way to heavy tropical downpours associated with Beryltracking up eastern Texas......Critical Fire Weather over portions of southern Utah...After reorganizing over the western Gulf of Mexico, Tropical storm Berylis poised to regain hurricane strength as it begins to track morenorthward toward the central Texas coastline. Heavy showers andthunderstorms associated with the outer rainbands of Beryl have alreadymoved onshore into eastern Texas this Sunday afternoon. Additionalrainbands will likely impact much of coastal Texas with increasinglysqually conditions overnight as the core of Beryl approaches the centralTexas coast. The National Hurricane Center expects Beryl to re-intensifyinto hurricane strength by this evening with the possibility for a periodof significant intensification as the center of Beryl nears the coast. Residents in the affected areas should be ready to follow evacuation andother instructions from local officials when prompted to do so. Followinglandfall, Beryl is forecast to continue tracking northward across easternTexas on Monday with very heavy tropical downpours and squally conditionsspreading from south to north through Monday, along with a chance forisolated tornadoes. Total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches withlocalized amounts of 15 inches are expected near and just east of thetrack of Beryl through Monday night. Highest amounts are expected nearthe coast. The heavy rainfall will likely produce areas of flash and urbanflooding, some of which may be locally considerable. Minor to isolatedmoderate river flooding is also expected.As Beryl tracks farther inland, it will come into increasing interactionwith an upper-level trough over the mid-section of the country and willbegin to lose tropical characteristics Monday night. The upper troughwill also turn Beryl toward the northeast across Arkansas on Tuesday asBeryl becomes extratropical. Some gusty winds can be expected asextratropical Beryl tracks across Arkansas toward the Mid-MississippiValley on Tuesday. A period of heavy rain can also be expected just northof Beryl's track.Meanwhile, the extremely dangerous heat wave in the West is forecast tocontinue and expand across the Northwest and into the Northern High Plainsover the next few days. Dozens of daily record temperatures are forecastto be tied or broken into the work week. Highs in the 100s to 110s andlows in the 70s will be 15-30 degree above normal. The multi-day natureof the heat and record warm overnight temperatures will cause heat stressto build in people without adequate cooling and hydration. In addition tothe heat, dry and windy conditions over parts of southern Utah willcontribute to a Critical Fire Weather Risk today. The heat isforecast to get less intense across the Central Valley of Californiathrough the next couple of days as highs are forecast to stay below 110 byTuesday but afternoon temperatures will remain well into the 100s. Meanwhile, highs are forecast to top 110 degrees on Tuesday at the hottestlocations in interior Pacific Northwest with 120 degrees remain withinreach in the Desert Southwest.The digging upper trough over the central U.S. that eventually lifts Berylacross the Mid-South will push a surface cold front south through thecentral Plains into this evening. Severe thunderstorms and excessiverainfall associated with clusters of convection will remain a concern intotonight. A slight chance of flash flooding will also extend northeastacross the Midwest through tonight. In addition, scattered thunderstormswill also move across many areas of the northern Plains and upper Midwest,as well as across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast through the nextcouple of days to the east of a stalled front. Isolated instances of flash flooding cannot be ruled out in these areas. Heat and humidity will gradually increase for these areas as well, with heat indices possibly reaching 100 degrees on Tuesday over the interior Mid-Atlantic where major to extreme Heat Risk is predicted.Kong/KebedeGraphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php